Sunspots resume

It looks like the solar cycle is finally cranking up after much delay. A big radio emitting spot is now on the sun with some other less active ones. It is too late for this to have much effect on the climate this year, but in 2011, if sunspots have an effect on climate as many suspect, then things might be a bit warmer than the so far bitterly cold 2009-2010. Overall though, some people are predicting 30 years of cold weather due to internal Earthly climate cycles.

In any event, the big sunspot now there will create auroras on Earth. Look in the sky tomorrow night and next for an aurora, particularly if you are located in a Northern latitude. Radio Hams are already reporting lots of static due to the big sunspot.

No Sunspots for 13 days

Twice this year the Sun has made a feeble attempt to resume the solar cycle. Both times the sunspots fizzled. We now have had no sunspots for 13 days.

I predict we are going to have a cold, cold winter. This past October was said to have been one of the coldest on record. The recent snowfall in Louisiana is said to have been the season's earliest on record.

Buy some long underwear. Stock up on wood as a backup for your regular heat. Buy a generator in case an ice storm knocks out the power. Propane generators are best because of the storeability of the fuel. I have the generator, but haven't done the electrical hookup.

Trying to think of mechanisms

Is there any plausible way to connect solar activity with Earth's climate ? In the visible region of the spectrum, sunspots make only a minor difference in solar output. But in the ultraviolet, a 6% decrease due to no sunspots is significant.

Smog, created by the action of UV on atmospheric pollutants, almost certainly acts as a greenhouse gas. Decreasing the amount of UV would plausibly decrease the amount of smog and hence decrease the amount of greenhouse effect, leading to cooling.

Atmospheric pollutants are sometimes human caused. Sometimes the pollutants are natural in origin, such as, the emission of hydrocarbons by certain kinds of trees. The Great Smokey Mountains are said to have a "smokey" appearance precisely due to tree emissions.

It therefore seems plausible to me that an absence of sunspots could lead to cooling. Detailed calculations are in order (but I'm not going to do it).

Arctic ice cover

A graph of ice cover in the arctic during the month of May for a range of years is available. The data and graph are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Whether the recent upward trend will continue is unknown. By fall we should have a better idea.

Our Somewhat inactive Sun

Sunspots have finally returned to the Sun after a long absence. There had been concern that the recent prolonged absence might mean the start of centuries long inactivity such as the Maunder minimum of the past that was associated with severely cold weather.

Even with the return of spots, the now commenced Sunspot Cycle 24 is predicted to be weak with relatively fewer spots. That might mean some cooling influence, or, maybe not. If there is any cooling influence it is unclear at the present time whether that will offset the warming influence of increased CO2.

Climate predictions are difficult due to the complexity of the many effects from physical, astrophysical, geomagnetic, solar, biological aerosols, clouds, particulates, biological and soil surface reflections, and anthropogenic pollutant influences. Climate modelers try their best to take it all into account, but the biological influences on the climate are near impossible to model, in part, because the climate influences the biology ! As someone who has done his share of computer modeling, I don't have a lot of confidence in it. As one British scientist put it, it is time to abandon a consensus prediction on the climate. We don't know.

If you would like to keep track of space weather, including sunspots see this link to space weather.