Mechanical Monsters

Having been forbidden to purchase a walk-behind snow blower, my attentions turned to vehicles that can be ridden. A wheel steerable front-end loader would be nice, but they are quite expensive. So, my attention turned to skid-steer loaders. Buckets, snow-plows, cable-layers, roto-tiller, back-hoes and other attachments can be mounted on the things.

I'm thinking of an inexpensive end-of-lifetime used machine with at least a few hours left on it. A snowplow can also be attached, or alternatively an specialized snow-plow vehicle could be purchased. Since I would like to pay for the machine by doing local driveways, it seems like the skid-steer would be the basic all around option. A truck with snowplow would be too hard to turn in driveways.

Sunspots resume

It looks like the solar cycle is finally cranking up after much delay. A big radio emitting spot is now on the sun with some other less active ones. It is too late for this to have much effect on the climate this year, but in 2011, if sunspots have an effect on climate as many suspect, then things might be a bit warmer than the so far bitterly cold 2009-2010. Overall though, some people are predicting 30 years of cold weather due to internal Earthly climate cycles.

In any event, the big sunspot now there will create auroras on Earth. Look in the sky tomorrow night and next for an aurora, particularly if you are located in a Northern latitude. Radio Hams are already reporting lots of static due to the big sunspot.

No Sunspots for 13 days

Twice this year the Sun has made a feeble attempt to resume the solar cycle. Both times the sunspots fizzled. We now have had no sunspots for 13 days.

I predict we are going to have a cold, cold winter. This past October was said to have been one of the coldest on record. The recent snowfall in Louisiana is said to have been the season's earliest on record.

Buy some long underwear. Stock up on wood as a backup for your regular heat. Buy a generator in case an ice storm knocks out the power. Propane generators are best because of the storeability of the fuel. I have the generator, but haven't done the electrical hookup.

No Sunspots for 9 days

After picking up some sunspot activity after a long lull in spots, the sun has gone spotless again. This is all very unusual behavior. The solar cycle should be in full upswing now, but it isn't. This could very well have a cooling influence on the climate.

Any such change would take a long time, but, for what it is worth, the National Snow and Ice Data Center shows that there is a good bit of ice left in the Arctic. Ice cover has definitely increased 2009 over 2008 and it now appears some of it will last into 2010.

The Climate Report Indicted

It is now claimed by a whistleblower that the EPA report on the climate did not take into account his doubts about the rise in global temperature. It is a fact that global temperature has declined the last few years, and, those are the years omitted from the climate report. This is exactly the same discrepancy in the report that I earlier noted. I was unaware of the whistleblower's comments. His views are disputed by others, but evidence based science should be based on evidence. Duh.

So, what is the truth ? I think that this summer's survival, or not, of arctic ice will be a telling thing. Last winter was really cold, arctic ice built up, the polar bears are thriving, and this spring's melt was delayed. Let's wait until September to see whether the new ice will become old ice or water. The resumption of sunspots has been delayed but has now started. Something is going on in the sun.

As if we didn't have earthly matters to be concerned about, there is now concern that the supergiant star Betelgeuse might soon go supernova. When I was in graduate school in astronomy there was a lot of concern about the issue. Most people think the effects of a Betelgeuse supernova will not affect us too much, others are not so sure. Eta Carina star might also soon go supernova.

How Climate affects Energy which affects National Security

Although some people have disputed the reality of climate change it is a certainty that minimizing CO2 emissions will have the very desirable effect of encouraging greater energy efficiency and resort to alternative energy sources. Indeed, one could reasonably suspect this is the hidden motivation behind concern about the climate.

We really need improved energy efficiency and alternative sources. It is the nature of industrial change that it takes a long long time to implement for the simple reason that it takes a long time for existing infrastructure to become too worn for use. Typically this means a lifetime for infrastructure of around 20 to 40 years. Thus the sooner we start the better. Wind and solar both have the potential to supply a lot of energy, but is will be too late if we wait until an emergency. Quite simply, the security of the nation depends upon starting energy change as soon as possible.

We are lucky that the 1973 oil crisis has already had some good effect on conservation. More is needed. Most critically, that change is needed in the personal transportation sector. Basically that means resort to electrical propulsion. Here is a link to a recent bill in Congress that establishes CO2 emission goals.

Is the Climate getting Warmer ? Brrr...

It sure has been cold lately. This summer was not all that hot either. OK, so the glaciers are melting and the Arctic is showing a bit of bare skin.

None of that helps me. According to actuarial tables a male my age has about 19 years life expectancy left. I don't think it will warm up much in 19 years ... if at all. Tonight at latitude 38 degrees North, that is here near Washington DC and same latitude as southern Spain, it is predicted to go down to 20 F. It is only November.

Diary flashbacks

For a long time, Lona and I have occasionally made entries in a joint diary since March 4, 1978. With a long ago view to climate change, I often recorded leaf emergence in the Spring and leaf fall in the Fall season. Today Oct. 27, 2008, it is still mostly green in the forest with some yellow leaves. Oct. 1, 2006 most had already turned yellow and would soon fall. Someday I will extract all entries and summarize them somewhere as a record of climate change.

Here is a random entry from Dec. 1, 1978:

It is really quite pleasant sitting amongst family (Soren & Lona) here at our apartment looking out at the night view of lights. Soren is happy, Lona is happy, I am happy. All is well. Just had spinach quiche washed down with tonic water ... Ahhh.

Ken LaCapria stopped by to pick up a buckle order. We talked about old times. Soren is sitting on Lona's shoulders pulling her hair. Great fun for Soren. We hope to hear from our builder soon about a price estimate.

Quote by John Archibald Wheeler: "... the past exists only as it is recorded in the present..."

The reference to an apartment, was in Oxon Hill, across from Sunnybrook and Henson Creek. Lona was still in the belt buckle business. We never did use the builder's services and instead built our house ourselves as project managers with John Greene's help on framing. I evidently recorded the quote from Wheeler as a remainder of the diary process itself. Wheeler specialized in general relativity and thus often thought about the passage of time.