Melting of Arctic Ice predicted to accelerate warming.

Here is an article that says that the melting of Arctic ice will enable twice the previously expected absorption of sunlight, and hence increased climate warming.

It is worth reading, but bear in mind that the same effect could cause increased clouds at mid-latitudes and increased reflectivity. Thus the overall effect is unknown.

Climate change

Anyone who thinks there is a consensus on global warming should read this BBC article. Also interesting is that spaceweather.com says that on 78% of the days this year the sun has been free of sunspots. That is not exactly a resounding endorsement of a resumption of the standard solar cycle. As I've been saying all along: I don't know what is going to happen.

Trying to think of mechanisms

Is there any plausible way to connect solar activity with Earth's climate ? In the visible region of the spectrum, sunspots make only a minor difference in solar output. But in the ultraviolet, a 6% decrease due to no sunspots is significant.

Smog, created by the action of UV on atmospheric pollutants, almost certainly acts as a greenhouse gas. Decreasing the amount of UV would plausibly decrease the amount of smog and hence decrease the amount of greenhouse effect, leading to cooling.

Atmospheric pollutants are sometimes human caused. Sometimes the pollutants are natural in origin, such as, the emission of hydrocarbons by certain kinds of trees. The Great Smokey Mountains are said to have a "smokey" appearance precisely due to tree emissions.

It therefore seems plausible to me that an absence of sunspots could lead to cooling. Detailed calculations are in order (but I'm not going to do it).

National Report on Climate Change

The recent report issued on climate change is excellent. About the only thing I would caution against is that not all of the graphs are up to date, nor are the trend lines all that clear. Read the legends accordingly.

As you would expect, both benefits and detriments accrue from climate change. Less winter heating fuel will be required. In the summer, northern states might experience up to 30 days of over 100 degree F weather in the summer with attendant need for air conditioning for elderly safety. For the most part, agriculture will benefit, however, cold weather crops like apples, blueberries and cranberries will suffer. There will be increasingly inequitable distribution of rainfall with heavy downpours in some areas and drought in others. That suggests to me that construction of colossal aqueducts might be a good idea.

One of the report's unexpected predictions is that increased lightning protection will be urgently required. It costs only $100 or so to install in your main panel a surge protector for the entire house. Many firms install lighting rod systems for reasonable prices. I would guess that less than $500 would do most houses. Remember that it is too late to shut the barn door after the horse escapes, so, do it now, especially if you live in a wood frame house.

The basic strategy for lightning protection is to install ground rods catty-corner across a house, run wire up the eaves, then along the ridge of the roof with a few rods along the way and especially at the peak ends. You can buy the supplies yourself and do it inexpensively. Special lightning wire provides minor advantages, heavy stranded wire will do the job in most places. Use no less than #4 bare copper stranded for a minimal installation, with heavier wire being advised. The ground rods should also be connected to the ground rod of your electrical service entrance and also to any structural steel girders at their ends.

The only way the predicted climate change can be avoided is if the Sun changes character, and, that is not impossible. The Sun has proven variable in the past. In any case, increased carbon dioxide will acidify the oceans with carbonic acid with attendant biological effects.

Hilarious video

People of all political persuasions will be rolling in the aisles with laughter after seeing this video.

Localized weather phenomenon

Tuesday, June 16, 2009, 14:00 EDT, Accokeek, Maryland

Today a slow moving very localized tropical downpour sat over the Bryans Point Road and Accokeek Creek area of Accokeek. That happens to be centered over my house. Flash flooding occurred all over the local area, but 2000 feet away, there was hardly any rain. I risked life and treasure to cross our causeway. The fast moving stream could have easily swept away the car with Scot and me in it. Accokeek Creek, now a swift river, had stopped up the Apple Valley Road culvert and the water rose almost to the height of the road. I thought the road would be totally washed out. As it was, damage was done to our drive way and to nearby parts of Apple Valley.

Arctic ice cover

A graph of ice cover in the arctic during the month of May for a range of years is available. The data and graph are from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Whether the recent upward trend will continue is unknown. By fall we should have a better idea.

The Sea-level in the Maldive Islands

It is always helpful to listen to eyewitnesses instead of hearsay. Here is an interesting eyewitness account of sea-levels in the Maldive Islands. Perhaps there is alternative contrary testimony. I don't know. Anyway, you can decide yourself by clicking on the link.

Climate data from Accokeek

For 30 years or so, Lona and I have kept a diary in which I usually record leaf budding in Spring, and leaf fall in the Fall. If anyone would like to transcribe this onto a spreadsheet and graph it, let me know. I'll bet it shows some climate change.

I'm not convinced about the icecover in the Arctic though. A NASA contractor who obviously wanted to keep his contract said that ice-cover 2008-2009 was the fifth thinnest in the last six years. Talk about "spin". Another way to put it is that this year was the second thickest in six years. In other words, the ice is getting thicker recently. But that would go against Hanson's biases in the propaganda department. Objectivity in science is best.