Silver lining in every dark cloud ?

The intense cold this winter has extended into Florida. I wonder if this means that the pythons might be frozen ? Some of them might survive in the cities, but most are likely to wish they were back in Burma or Africa as the case might be.

The Orderly Universe

It is only natural that people like to make order out of their perceptions of the universe. It is this inborn trait of people that leads them to disbelieve things that are true but are strange. Sometimes true stories are falsely turned into mythical legends by those who want to make order of their universe. Such is the case of the legend of the alligators in New York sewers. It is actually true that it happened. Inevitably, the deniers started writing that it was an apocryphal legend. Eventually the alleged apocryphal legend turned into a "hoax" and "wholly false story" suitable for the gullible. As the link above shows, the legend is a true legend, not false.

There are other reasons for this strange human trait to refuse to examine the evidence. One of those reasons is that no one wants to be thought of as a fool. This is a consequence of possessing an ego. In order to not appear a fool, it is best to not believe the tall tales you hear.

On the other side of the coin, some people do indeed exaggerate or lie for the purpose of humor or monetary gain, so, disbelief also has a basis in human nature. In the end, there is no substitute for actually examining the evidence and making your own decision. In examining evidence, it is necessary not to rely on other peoples ridiculing opinions of the evidence. Only by a detailed examination of the evidence by yourself will do.

Our Somewhat inactive Sun

Sunspots have finally returned to the Sun after a long absence. There had been concern that the recent prolonged absence might mean the start of centuries long inactivity such as the Maunder minimum of the past that was associated with severely cold weather.

Even with the return of spots, the now commenced Sunspot Cycle 24 is predicted to be weak with relatively fewer spots. That might mean some cooling influence, or, maybe not. If there is any cooling influence it is unclear at the present time whether that will offset the warming influence of increased CO2.

Climate predictions are difficult due to the complexity of the many effects from physical, astrophysical, geomagnetic, solar, biological aerosols, clouds, particulates, biological and soil surface reflections, and anthropogenic pollutant influences. Climate modelers try their best to take it all into account, but the biological influences on the climate are near impossible to model, in part, because the climate influences the biology ! As someone who has done his share of computer modeling, I don't have a lot of confidence in it. As one British scientist put it, it is time to abandon a consensus prediction on the climate. We don't know.

If you would like to keep track of space weather, including sunspots see this link to space weather.

Updated Adventures of Jon and Jake

Already a gypsy pickpocket tried to get Jon's wallet. He foiled them somehow. Pickpockets are ubiquitous in Europe. They almost don't exist in the US.

Jon and Jake are now on the way to the south of France. I sent Jon an email with this pickpocket advice.

Avoid kids with signs, they use them to hide their hands. Likewise swaddled infants in mom's arms.

ATM machines: they insert a sleeve into the slot so your card jams, then observe you enter PIN. They retrieve the sleeve with its tab and your card.

If someone in a uniform asks to count your cash, its a scam. Ask to see their ID.

Keep your passport especially safe. Below the belt money pocket is better than above the belt. They razor it out.


Another good idea is stitch the bottom of all pockets to the clothing. Pickpockets don't reach into your pocket, instead, they lift up the lining until they get what they want.

A perspective on the world financial crisis

The fraction of defaulting mortgages is not yet that great, but will become much larger. But seen as a fraction of total world debt, it is still not that much.

Instead, the real financial crisis is a total loss of confidence in everything to do with money. No one will finance debt when there is no confidence in the future. The origins of that loss of confidence I am not going to address. It is complex, and, plenty of finger pointing can be done in all directions.

Rather, I am going to take a stab at what the future holds. Real things such as nuts, bolts, people, real estate, real capital (e.g. factories) will still be around. People need to eat, they need a place to live. Farmers will do well. They will be able to sell, in some currency, everything they grow. Agriculture exports will continue to boom. There will be demand for real things and a surplus of labor. Labor costs will go down, prices for everything will drop. In other words, there will be deflation on a massive scale. Gold will go down in price, having already correctly risen.

Money is an accounting system for who did what, and how much, for others. It is that accounting system that is devastated. Good people will be hurt, bad people will be hurt. A few prudent souls will benefit. Anyone with an education will still possess that knowledge and skills set. Anyone with a bag of nuts and bolts will still have them.

Be kind to others. Do not do unto others what you would not have others do unto you. That is the real bottom line. Keep living. Do good deeds.